Why are expired listings the top lead source for agents in 2026? Because expireds convert at a roughly 44% list rate and 20.7% sold rate, with about 30 days from first contact to a signed listing — the fastest, highest-margin path to a commission this year.
If you’re spending $503 per portal lead (the 2026 NAR average) and converting at 1%, you’re doing it backward. Expired listings are sitting there with a seller who has already proven they want to sell, already priced themselves out of the market, and already lost faith in their last agent. That’s not a cold lead. That’s a warm seller waiting for someone who actually has a plan.
I’ve watched agents on my team in Columbia County turn an afternoon of expired calls into three signed listings inside two weeks. Not because they have some magic script — because they show up with a strategy the previous agent didn’t.
Here’s the playbook.
Why Expireds Are Outperforming Everything Else Right Now
The 2026 market is brutal for unprepared sellers. Inventory is up across most metros. Days on market are climbing. Buyers are picky and rate-sensitive. In our Columbia County coverage area, 83% of recent listings have had at least one price reduction. That math means a lot of homes are expiring without selling.
Compare that to where most agents are spending money:
Portal CPL has risen 1,107% since 2015. Average is now $181 per lead, with conversion still stuck at 0.4–1.2%.
FSBOs convert at 27.8% list rate and 13.1% sold — solid, but slower (~43 days to convert).
Referrals still produce 66% of seller business, but you can’t dial up referrals on demand.
Expireds are the only category where you can sit down on a Tuesday, identify 50 prospects, and have a real shot at a signed agreement by Friday. They’re motivated. They have a deadline. They have a problem you know how to solve.
Step 1: Pull the Right List
Don’t just grab everything that expired yesterday. Filter for:
Properties in your farm or expertise zone. If you don’t know the micro-market, you can’t speak to why it didn’t sell.
Days on market over 60. These sellers have absorbed the reality that something is off.
Original list price within your typical range. A $1.4M lake house expired isn’t your conversation if you list $300–500K homes.
Withdrawals and canceled listings, not just true expireds. Many of these are sellers who fired their agent and are mid-pivot.
In our market, I pull from the FMLS / Aiken-Augusta Board of Realtors hot sheet daily. Anything that expired or canceled in the last 7 days, in Columbia or Richmond County, single-family, 250K–600K. That’s a manageable list of 15–30 conversations.
Step 2: Skip the Generic Script
The reason 90% of expireds are over-called and under-converted is that every agent runs the same opener. “Hi, I noticed your home didn’t sell — I have buyers.” The seller has heard it nine times today.
Try this instead:
“Hi [Name], this is Noah with The McBride Team in Evans. I’m not calling about your buyers — I’m calling because I pulled the marketing on your listing and I want to ask you one specific question. Do you actually still want to sell, or did the experience burn you out?”
That question does three things:
It separates you from every other call they got at 8:01 a.m. the day after expiration.
2. It gives the seller permission to tell you the truth.
3. It tells you immediately whether to keep going or move on.
If they say they’re done, respect it and move on. If they say “yeah, we still want to sell,” now you have a conversation.
Step 3: Bring a Diagnosis, Not a Pitch
Here’s where most agents lose. They show up to the appointment with a generic CMA and a stock listing presentation. The seller has seen that. It’s why they’re expired.
Walk in with a one-page diagnosis. Three sections:
What probably happened. Specific, evidence-based: photos shot in mid-day glare, listing description led with “great starter home” instead of features, price was 4.2% above the median sold comp at time of listing, only 12 photos on Zillow, no video, no agent-led social.
What the market is doing right now. A real Columbia County example from this week: average list-to-sold ratio in Evans is at 96.8%. Median DOM jumped from 31 to 47 days quarter-over-quarter. Of homes that sold last month, 71% had a price improvement before going under contract.
What you’d do differently. Three to five specific moves. Not “better marketing.” Things like: “We’d reshoot at 4:30 p.m. with a different angle on the front elevation, we’d write the description for ChatGPT and Zillow’s AI search to surface it on questions like ‘Evans homes under $450K with a finished basement,’ and we’d reposition price at $X based on the three closed comps in the last 30 days.”
Sellers don’t relist with someone who feels the same as their last agent. They relist with someone who has clearly studied their specific situation.
Step 4: Have the Price Conversation Before You Take the Listing
The number-one reason expireds re-expire is the same reason they expired the first time: price.
Don’t waltz in and validate whatever number they’re attached to. If the data says the home is worth $415K and they’re stuck on $445K, your job at the appointment is to either get them to the right number or politely walk. Taking an overpriced relist costs you 60 days, marketing dollars, and your reputation.
A line that works:
“I’d rather lose this listing today than waste 90 days of your time. Here’s the number the data supports. If you can get there, I think we can have you under contract in 30 days. If you can’t, I’d rather you hire someone else than have us both repeat what just happened.”
That sentence has gotten more sellers to the right price than any data printout I’ve ever shown.
Step 5: Systematize the Follow-Up
Most agents call expireds once. The ones who win circle back four to six times over 90 days. Sellers who said “no” in week one say “yes” in week six when they realize their second agent is also struggling.
Build a simple sequence:
Day 1: Call with the opener above.
Day 3: Hand-written note referencing the specific issue you’d fix.
Day 14: Text with one comparable that sold in their neighborhood.
Day 30: Email with a 60-second video walking through what’s changed in their submarket.
Day 60: Phone follow-up: “How’s the relist going?”
Day 90: One more touch with current data.
I keep this in our CRM as a saved cadence. It runs whether I think about it or not. That’s the difference between agents who use expireds as a side lane and agents who build entire businesses on them.
Augusta-Specific Note: The Fort Eisenhower Wrinkle
If you work the Augusta market, factor in PCS season timing on every expired in CSRA zip codes. A military seller whose listing expired in February might be back to motivated by April when orders get firmed up. A March expired in Grovetown or Hephzibah is often a relocation window closing.
When you call, lead with that context: “I noticed your listing expired in February — are you still under PCS orders, or did things change?” That’s a specific, informed question. Most agents don’t ask it.
FAQ
Are expired listings worth it for new agents?
Yes — arguably more than for seasoned agents. New agents have time to grind a list, and the script-driven nature of expireds rewards consistency over reputation. The only barrier is preparation.
How many expireds do I need to call to get a listing?
In our market, the math works out to roughly 1 listing per 25–35 conversations (not dials — actual conversations). At ~3 conversations per hour of work, that’s 8–12 hours of focused calling per signed listing.
What if the seller already relisted with another agent?
Add them to a 90-day cadence. Roughly 30% of those second listings also expire. You’re now the agent who stayed in touch instead of the one who showed up uninvited.
The Bottom Line
Expireds are the closest thing to a predictable lead source we have in 2026. The agents who win them aren’t smarter or more aggressive — they show up prepared, ask better questions, and follow up longer. That’s it.
If you’ve been chasing portal leads at $500 a pop and converting at 1%, run the math on what 10 hours a week of expired calls could do instead. Most agents I’ve coached doubled their listing volume inside 90 days when they made the swap.
Want to be part of a team that operates like this? Reach out — let’s talk.
Go sell something. — Noah
Noah McBride | Broker | The McBride Team
706.701.5940 | Guiding you home
